Daily Papers

Pairwise compatibility calculation is at the core of most fragments-reconstruction algorithms, in particular those designed to solve different types of the jigsaw puzzle problem. However, most existing approaches fail, or aren't designed to deal with fragments of realistic geometric properties one encounters in real-life puzzles. And in all other cases, compatibility methods rely strongly on the restricted shapes of the fragments. In this paper, we propose an efficient hybrid (geometric and pictorial) approach for computing the optimal alignment for pairs of fragments, without any assumptions about their shapes, dimensions, or pictorial content. We introduce a new image fragments dataset generated via a novel method for image fragmentation and a formal erosion model that mimics real-world archaeological erosion, along with evaluation metrics for the compatibility task. We then embed our proposed compatibility into an archaeological puzzle-solving framework and demonstrate state-of-the-art neighborhood-level precision and recall on the RePAIR 2D dataset, directly reflecting compatibility performance improvements.

We introduce Tempest, a multi-turn adversarial framework that models the gradual erosion of Large Language Model (LLM) safety through a tree search perspective. Unlike single-turn jailbreaks that rely on one meticulously engineered prompt, Tempest expands the conversation at each turn in a breadth-first fashion, branching out multiple adversarial prompts that exploit partial compliance from previous responses. By tracking these incremental policy leaks and re-injecting them into subsequent queries, Tempest reveals how minor concessions can accumulate into fully disallowed outputs. Evaluations on the JailbreakBench dataset show that Tempest achieves a 100% success rate on GPT-3.5-turbo and 97% on GPT-4 in a single multi-turn run, using fewer queries than baselines such as Crescendo or GOAT. This tree search methodology offers an in-depth view of how model safeguards degrade over successive dialogue turns, underscoring the urgency of robust multi-turn testing procedures for language models.

Memory is not merely the storage of data; it is the scaffolding of reality. When biological memory fades, the world does not simply turn black; it regresses into an unrecognizable chaos. Echoes of the Prior is an interactive installation that attempts to visualize this subjective phenomenology of forgetting. By inducing controlled synaptic decay within a Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction model, we create an artistic analogy for the erosion of the brain's predictive priors. We position the Neural Network not as a tool for engineering, but as a cognitive proxy - a silicon brain whose structural degeneration evokes the disorienting, poetic, and terrifying experience of losing one's grip on the world. Ultimately, we offer this framework as a catalyst, inviting the wider community to explore the uncharted potential of neuromorphic aesthetics in visualizing the fragility of intelligence. Interactive demo see https://decart-4d.github.io/.

How can we effectively unlearn selected concepts from pre-trained generative foundation models without resorting to extensive retraining? This research introduces `continual unlearning', a novel paradigm that enables the targeted removal of multiple specific concepts from foundational generative models, incrementally. We propose Decremental Unlearning without Generalization Erosion (DUGE) algorithm which selectively unlearns the generation of undesired concepts while preserving the generation of related, non-targeted concepts and alleviating generalization erosion. For this, DUGE targets three losses: a cross-attention loss that steers the focus towards images devoid of the target concept; a prior-preservation loss that safeguards knowledge related to non-target concepts; and a regularization loss that prevents the model from suffering from generalization erosion. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of the proposed approach to exclude certain concepts without compromising the overall integrity and performance of the model. This offers a pragmatic solution for refining generative models, adeptly handling the intricacies of model training and concept management lowering the risks of copyright infringement, personal or licensed material misuse, and replication of distinctive artistic styles. Importantly, it maintains the non-targeted concepts, thereby safeguarding the model's core capabilities and effectiveness.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated impressive capabilities in complex reasoning tasks by leveraging increased test-time computation and exhibiting behaviors reminiscent of human-like self-reflection. While LRMs show a clear capacity for valuable self-reflection, how this ability interacts with other model behaviors remains underexplored. We investigate this connection by analyzing verbalized confidence, how models articulate their certainty, as a lens into the nature of self-reflection in LRMs. We find that supervised fine-tuning on reasoning traces (i.e., distillation) and reinforcement learning can improve verbalized calibration in reasoning-intensive settings in a progressive, laddered fashion. However, our results also indicate that reasoning models may possess a diminished awareness of their own knowledge boundaries, as evidenced by significantly lower "I don't know" response rates on factuality benchmarks. Moreover, we examine the relationship between verbalized confidence and reasoning chains, finding that models tend to express higher confidence when providing shorter or less elaborate reasoning. Our findings highlight how reasoning-oriented training can enhance performance in reasoning-centric tasks while potentially incurring a "reasoning tax," a cost reflected in the model's reduced ability to accurately recognize the limits of its own knowledge in small-scale models. More broadly, our work showcases how this erosion of knowledge boundaries can compromise model faithfulness, as models grow more confident without a commensurate understanding of when they should abstain.

As political attitudes have diverged ideologically in the United States, political speech has diverged lingusitically. The ever-widening polarization between the US political parties is accelerated by an erosion of mutual understanding between them. We aim to make these communities more comprehensible to each other with a framework that probes community-specific responses to the same survey questions using community language models CommunityLM. In our framework we identify committed partisan members for each community on Twitter and fine-tune LMs on the tweets authored by them. We then assess the worldviews of the two groups using prompt-based probing of their corresponding LMs, with prompts that elicit opinions about public figures and groups surveyed by the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2020 Exploratory Testing Survey. We compare the responses generated by the LMs to the ANES survey results, and find a level of alignment that greatly exceeds several baseline methods. Our work aims to show that we can use community LMs to query the worldview of any group of people given a sufficiently large sample of their social media discussions or media diet.

From the invention of writing and the printing press, to television and social media, human history is punctuated by major innovations in communication technology, which fundamentally altered how ideas spread and reshaped our culture. Recent chatbots powered by generative artificial intelligence constitute a novel medium that encodes cultural patterns in their neural representations and disseminates them in conversations with hundreds of millions of people. Understanding whether these patterns transmit into human language, and ultimately shape human culture, is a fundamental question. While fully quantifying the causal impact of a chatbot like ChatGPT on human culture is very challenging, lexicographic shift in human spoken communication may offer an early indicator of such broad phenomenon. Here, we apply econometric causal inference techniques to 740,249 hours of human discourse from 360,445 YouTube academic talks and 771,591 conversational podcast episodes across multiple disciplines. We detect a measurable and abrupt increase in the use of words preferentially generated by ChatGPT, such as delve, comprehend, boast, swift, and meticulous, after its release. These findings suggest a scenario where machines, originally trained on human data and subsequently exhibiting their own cultural traits, can, in turn, measurably reshape human culture. This marks the beginning of a closed cultural feedback loop in which cultural traits circulate bidirectionally between humans and machines. Our results motivate further research into the evolution of human-machine culture, and raise concerns over the erosion of linguistic and cultural diversity, and the risks of scalable manipulation.

Alignment plays a crucial role in Large Language Models (LLMs) in aligning with human preferences on a specific task/domain. Traditional alignment methods suffer from catastrophic forgetting, where models lose previously acquired knowledge when adapting to new preferences or domains. We introduce LifeAlign, a novel framework for lifelong alignment that enables LLMs to maintain consistent human preference alignment across sequential learning tasks without forgetting previously learned knowledge. Our approach consists of two key innovations. First, we propose a focalized preference optimization strategy that aligns LLMs with new preferences while preventing the erosion of knowledge acquired from previous tasks. Second, we develop a short-to-long memory consolidation mechanism that merges denoised short-term preference representations into stable long-term memory using intrinsic dimensionality reduction, enabling efficient storage and retrieval of alignment patterns across diverse domains. We evaluate LifeAlign across multiple sequential alignment tasks spanning different domains and preference types. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance in maintaining both preference alignment quality and knowledge retention compared to existing lifelong learning approaches. The codes and datasets have been released on https://github.com/real-ljs/LifeAlign.

Recent advance in text-to-image diffusion models have significantly facilitated the generation of high-quality images, but also raising concerns about the illegal creation of harmful content, such as copyrighted images. Existing concept erasure methods achieve superior results in preventing the production of erased concept from prompts, but typically perform poorly in preventing undesired editing. To address this issue, we propose an Anti-Editing Concept Erasure (ACE) method, which not only erases the target concept during generation but also filters out it during editing. Specifically, we propose to inject the erasure guidance into both conditional and the unconditional noise prediction, enabling the model to effectively prevent the creation of erasure concepts during both editing and generation. Furthermore, a stochastic correction guidance is introduced during training to address the erosion of unrelated concepts. We conducted erasure editing experiments with representative editing methods (i.e., LEDITS++ and MasaCtrl) to erase IP characters, and the results indicate that our ACE effectively filters out target concepts in both types of edits. Additional experiments on erasing explicit concepts and artistic styles further demonstrate that our ACE performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods. Our code will be publicly available at https://github.com/120L020904/ACE.

This paper aims to help structure the risk landscape associated with large-scale Language Models (LMs). In order to foster advances in responsible innovation, an in-depth understanding of the potential risks posed by these models is needed. A wide range of established and anticipated risks are analysed in detail, drawing on multidisciplinary expertise and literature from computer science, linguistics, and social sciences. We outline six specific risk areas: I. Discrimination, Exclusion and Toxicity, II. Information Hazards, III. Misinformation Harms, V. Malicious Uses, V. Human-Computer Interaction Harms, VI. Automation, Access, and Environmental Harms. The first area concerns the perpetuation of stereotypes, unfair discrimination, exclusionary norms, toxic language, and lower performance by social group for LMs. The second focuses on risks from private data leaks or LMs correctly inferring sensitive information. The third addresses risks arising from poor, false or misleading information including in sensitive domains, and knock-on risks such as the erosion of trust in shared information. The fourth considers risks from actors who try to use LMs to cause harm. The fifth focuses on risks specific to LLMs used to underpin conversational agents that interact with human users, including unsafe use, manipulation or deception. The sixth discusses the risk of environmental harm, job automation, and other challenges that may have a disparate effect on different social groups or communities. In total, we review 21 risks in-depth. We discuss the points of origin of different risks and point to potential mitigation approaches. Lastly, we discuss organisational responsibilities in implementing mitigations, and the role of collaboration and participation. We highlight directions for further research, particularly on expanding the toolkit for assessing and evaluating the outlined risks in LMs.

Coding agents must integrate external tool returns into ongoing reasoning - a capability that standard left-to-right pretraining on code exposes only in its forward direction. We observe that the action-observation-continuation loop of a coding agent is structurally isomorphic to a function call site, where a caller binds arguments, a callee returns a value computed elsewhere, and downstream code consumes that value. This conditioning structure exists at internet scale in ordinary code. We exploit it through function-aware fill-in-the-middle (FIM) mid-training: a self-supervised objective that masks functions selected via program dependency graph analysis and a complexity-inferability double criterion. We mid-train Qwen2.5-Coder-Instruct (7B/14B) and Qwen3-8B on a 2.6B-token decontaminated corpus drawn from 968 GitHub repositories, then apply existing agentic post-training pipelines. Mid-training improves SWE-Bench-Verified by +2.8/+3.0 at 7B/14B and by +3.2 on Qwen3-8B; SWE-Bench-Lite gains are +3.7/+4.0/+5.4 on the same models. The improvement holds across two post-training pipelines (R2E-Gym, SWE-Smith) and on a non-Qwen2.5 base (Qwen3-8B with SWE-Lego). Beyond in-domain gains, mid-training also mitigates the capability erosion that agentic post-training otherwise inflicts on non-agent coding (e.g., LiveCodeBench) and non-coding tool-use benchmarks (tau-bench, BFCL): although the mid-training corpus contains Python code only, the function-call inductive bias survives post-training and yields consistent gains.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for telecom tasks and datasets is a common practice to adapt general-purpose models to the telecom domain. However, little attention has been paid to how this process may compromise model safety. Recent research has shown that even benign fine-tuning can degrade the safety alignment of LLMs, causing them to respond to harmful or unethical user queries. In this paper, we investigate this issue for telecom-tuned LLMs using three representative datasets featured by the GenAINet initiative. We show that safety degradation persists even for structured and seemingly harmless datasets such as 3GPP standards and tabular records, indicating that telecom-specific data is not immune to safety erosion during fine-tuning. We further extend our analysis to publicly available Telecom LLMs trained via continual pre-training, revealing that safety alignment is often severely lacking, primarily due to the omission of safety-focused instruction tuning. To address these issues in both fine-tuned and pre-trained models, we conduct extensive experiments and evaluate three safety realignment defenses (SafeInstruct, SafeLoRA, and SafeMERGE) using established red-teaming benchmarks. The results show that, across all settings, the proposed defenses can effectively restore safety after harmful degradation without compromising downstream task performance, leading to Safe teleCOMMunication (SafeCOMM) models. In a nutshell, our work serves as a diagnostic study and practical guide for safety realignment in telecom-tuned LLMs, and emphasizes the importance of safety-aware instruction and fine-tuning for real-world deployments of Telecom LLMs.

The prevalent use of commercial and open-source diffusion models (DMs) for text-to-image generation prompts risk mitigation to prevent undesired behaviors. Existing concept erasing methods in academia are all based on full parameter or specification-based fine-tuning, from which we observe the following issues: 1) Generation alternation towards erosion: Parameter drift during target elimination causes alternations and potential deformations across all generations, even eroding other concepts at varying degrees, which is more evident with multi-concept erased; 2) Transfer inability & deployment inefficiency: Previous model-specific erasure impedes the flexible combination of concepts and the training-free transfer towards other models, resulting in linear cost growth as the deployment scenarios increase. To achieve non-invasive, precise, customizable, and transferable elimination, we ground our erasing framework on one-dimensional adapters to erase multiple concepts from most DMs at once across versatile erasing applications. The concept-SemiPermeable structure is injected as a Membrane (SPM) into any DM to learn targeted erasing, and meantime the alteration and erosion phenomenon is effectively mitigated via a novel Latent Anchoring fine-tuning strategy. Once obtained, SPMs can be flexibly combined and plug-and-play for other DMs without specific re-tuning, enabling timely and efficient adaptation to diverse scenarios. During generation, our Facilitated Transport mechanism dynamically regulates the permeability of each SPM to respond to different input prompts, further minimizing the impact on other concepts. Quantitative and qualitative results across ~40 concepts, 7 DMs and 4 erasing applications have demonstrated the superior erasing of SPM. Our code and pre-tuned SPMs will be available on the project page https://lyumengyao.github.io/projects/spm.

Spoken Language Models (SLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for speech synthesis by bypassing explicit grapheme-to-phoneme pipelines. However, their effectiveness in low-resource languages remains fundamentally limited by the scarcity of transcribed speech. In practice, synthetic data has become the primary strategy for scaling SLMs in such settings, providing reliable phonetic supervision when real data is insufficient. In this work, we show that this reliance introduces a fundamental trade-off, which we term the Stability-Expressivity Gap: while synthetic data improves phonetic accuracy, it progressively suppresses prosodic variability, ultimately leading to a collapse of expressivity (Synthetic Erosion). To bridge this gap, we propose two self-alignment frameworks. Disentanglement-Guided Self-Alignment (DGSA) recovers expressivity for complex languages by exploiting prosody-timbre separation. For regimes where authentic references are exceptionally limited, Temperature-Driven Self-Critique (TDSC) stabilizes generation through automated exploration and filtering. Our approach outperforms strong commercial systems, including ElevenLabs and Gemini Pro, and enables the first zero-shot voice cloning capability for Lao.

LLM-based agent architectures systematically conflate information transport mechanisms with epistemic justification mechanisms. We formalize this class of architectural failures as semantic laundering: a pattern where propositions with absent or weak warrant are accepted by the system as admissible by crossing architecturally trusted interfaces. We show that semantic laundering constitutes an architectural realization of the Gettier problem: propositions acquire high epistemic status without a connection between their justification and what makes them true. Unlike classical Gettier cases, this effect is not accidental; it is architecturally determined and systematically reproducible. The central result is the Theorem of Inevitable Self-Licensing: under standard architectural assumptions, circular epistemic justification cannot be eliminated. We introduce the Warrant Erosion Principle as the fundamental explanation for this effect and show that scaling, model improvement, and LLM-as-judge schemes are structurally incapable of eliminating a problem that exists at the type level.

In text-to-SQL task, seq-to-seq models often lead to sub-optimal performance due to limitations in their architecture. In this paper, we present a simple yet effective approach that adapts transformer-based seq-to-seq model to robust text-to-SQL generation. Instead of inducing constraint to decoder or reformat the task as slot-filling, we propose to train seq-to-seq model with Schema aware Denoising (SeaD), which consists of two denoising objectives that train model to either recover input or predict output from two novel erosion and shuffle noises. These denoising objectives acts as the auxiliary tasks for better modeling the structural data in S2S generation. In addition, we improve and propose a clause-sensitive execution guided (EG) decoding strategy to overcome the limitation of EG decoding for generative model. The experiments show that the proposed method improves the performance of seq-to-seq model in both schema linking and grammar correctness and establishes new state-of-the-art on WikiSQL benchmark. The results indicate that the capacity of vanilla seq-to-seq architecture for text-to-SQL may have been under-estimated.

Software development is iterative, yet agentic coding benchmarks overwhelmingly evaluate single-shot solutions against complete specifications. Code can pass the test suite but become progressively harder to extend. Recent iterative benchmarks attempt to close this gap, but constrain the agent's design decisions too tightly to faithfully measure how code quality shapes future extensions. We introduce SlopCodeBench, a language-agnostic benchmark comprising 20 problems and 93 checkpoints, in which agents repeatedly extend their own prior solutions under evolving specifications that force architectural decisions without prescribing internal structure. We track two trajectory-level quality signals: verbosity, the fraction of redundant or duplicated code, and structural erosion, the share of complexity mass concentrated in high-complexity functions. No agent solves any problem end-to-end across 11 models; the highest checkpoint solve rate is 17.2%. Quality degrades steadily: erosion rises in 80% of trajectories and verbosity in 89.8%. Against 48 open-source Python repositories, agent code is 2.2x more verbose and markedly more eroded. Tracking 20 of those repositories over time shows that human code stays flat, while agent code deteriorates with each iteration. A prompt-intervention study shows that initial quality can be improved, but it does not halt degradation. These results demonstrate that pass-rate benchmarks systematically undermeasure extension robustness, and that current agents lack the design discipline iterative software development demands.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

Loss landscape is a useful tool to characterize and compare neural network models. The main challenge for analysis of loss landscape for the deep neural networks is that they are generally highly non-convex in very high dimensional space. In this paper, we develop "the roughness"concept for understanding such landscapes in high dimensions and apply this technique to study two neural network models arising from solving differential equations. Our main innovation is the proposal of a well-defined and easy-to-compute roughness index (RI) which is based on the mean and variance of the (normalized) total variation for one-dimensional functions projected on randomly sampled directions. A large RI at the local minimizer hints an oscillatory landscape profile and indicates a severe challenge for the first-order optimization method. Particularly, we observe the increasing-then-decreasing pattern for RI along the gradient descent path in most models. We apply our method to two types of loss functions used to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) when the solution of PDE is parametrized by neural networks. Our empirical results on these PDE problems reveal important and consistent observations that the landscapes from the deep Galerkin method around its local minimizers are less rough than the deep Ritz method.

Terrain modeling has traditionally relied on procedural techniques, which often require extensive domain expertise and handcrafted rules. In this paper, we present MESA - a novel data-centric alternative by training a diffusion model on global remote sensing data. This approach leverages large-scale geospatial information to generate high-quality terrain samples from text descriptions, showcasing a flexible and scalable solution for terrain generation. The model's capabilities are demonstrated through extensive experiments, highlighting its ability to generate realistic and diverse terrain landscapes. The dataset produced to support this work, the Major TOM Core-DEM extension dataset, is released openly as a comprehensive resource for global terrain data. The results suggest that data-driven models, trained on remote sensing data, can provide a powerful tool for realistic terrain modeling and generation.

This monograph presents the core principles that have guided the development of diffusion models, tracing their origins and showing how diverse formulations arise from shared mathematical ideas. Diffusion modeling starts by defining a forward process that gradually corrupts data into noise, linking the data distribution to a simple prior through a continuum of intermediate distributions. The goal is to learn a reverse process that transforms noise back into data while recovering the same intermediates. We describe three complementary views. The variational view, inspired by variational autoencoders, sees diffusion as learning to remove noise step by step. The score-based view, rooted in energy-based modeling, learns the gradient of the evolving data distribution, indicating how to nudge samples toward more likely regions. The flow-based view, related to normalizing flows, treats generation as following a smooth path that moves samples from noise to data under a learned velocity field. These perspectives share a common backbone: a time-dependent velocity field whose flow transports a simple prior to the data. Sampling then amounts to solving a differential equation that evolves noise into data along a continuous trajectory. On this foundation, the monograph discusses guidance for controllable generation, efficient numerical solvers, and diffusion-motivated flow-map models that learn direct mappings between arbitrary times. It provides a conceptual and mathematically grounded understanding of diffusion models for readers with basic deep-learning knowledge.

Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolution for local-scale risk-assessments is not computationally feasible. Deep learning-based super-resolution models offer a promising solution to downscale ESM outputs to higher resolutions by learning from data. Yet, due to regional variations in climatic processes, these models typically require retraining for each geographical area-demanding high-resolution observational data, which is unevenly available across the globe. This highlights the need to assess how well these models generalize across geographic regions. To address this, we introduce RainShift, a dataset and benchmark for evaluating downscaling under geographic distribution shifts. We evaluate state-of-the-art downscaling approaches including GANs and diffusion models in generalizing across data gaps between the Global North and Global South. Our findings reveal substantial performance drops in out-of-distribution regions, depending on model and geographic area. While expanding the training domain generally improves generalization, it is insufficient to overcome shifts between geographically distinct regions. We show that addressing these shifts through, for example, data alignment can improve spatial generalization. Our work advances the global applicability of downscaling methods and represents a step toward reducing inequities in access to high-resolution climate information.

Sketch-based terrain generation seeks to create realistic landscapes for virtual environments in various applications such as computer games, animation and virtual reality. Recently, deep learning based terrain generation has emerged, notably the ones based on generative adversarial networks (GAN). However, these methods often struggle to fulfill the requirements of flexible user control and maintain generative diversity for realistic terrain. Therefore, we propose a novel diffusion-based method, namely terrain diffusion network (TDN), which actively incorporates user guidance for enhanced controllability, taking into account terrain features like rivers, ridges, basins, and peaks. Instead of adhering to a conventional monolithic denoising process, which often compromises the fidelity of terrain details or the alignment with user control, a multi-level denoising scheme is proposed to generate more realistic terrains by taking into account fine-grained details, particularly those related to climatic patterns influenced by erosion and tectonic activities. Specifically, three terrain synthesisers are designed for structural, intermediate, and fine-grained level denoising purposes, which allow each synthesiser concentrate on a distinct terrain aspect. Moreover, to maximise the efficiency of our TDN, we further introduce terrain and sketch latent spaces for the synthesizers with pre-trained terrain autoencoders. Comprehensive experiments on a new dataset constructed from NASA Topology Images clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, achieving the state-of-the-art performance. Our code and dataset will be publicly available.

We study a discrete model for generalized exchange-driven growth in which the particle exchanged between two clusters is not limited to be of size one. This set of models include as special cases the usual exchange-driven growth system and the coagulation-fragmentation system with binary fragmentation. Under reasonable general condition on the rate coefficients we establish the existence of admissible solutions, meaning solutions that are obtained as appropriate limit of solutions to a finite-dimensional truncation of the infinite-dimensional ODE. For these solutions we prove that, in the class of models we call isolated both the total number of particles and the total mass are conserved, whereas in those models we can non-isolated only the mass is conserved. Additionally, under more restrictive growth conditions for the rate equations we obtain uniqueness of solutions to the initial value problems.

Soot is a component of atmospheric aerosols that affects climate by scattering and absorbing the sunlight. Soot particles are fractal aggregates composed of elemental carbon. In the atmosphere, the aggregates acquire coatings by condensation and coagulation, resulting in significant compaction of the aggregates that changes the direct climate forcing of soot. Currently, no models exist to rigorously describe the process of soot restructuring, reducing prediction accuracy of atmospheric aerosol models. We develop a discrete element method contact model to simulate restructuring of fractal soot aggregates, represented as assemblies of spheres joined by cohesion and by sintered necks. The model is parametrized based on atomic force spectroscopy data and is used to simulate soot restructuring, showing that the fraction of necks in aggregates determines the restructuring pathway. Aggregates with fewer necks undergo local compaction, while aggregates with nearly-full necking prefer global compaction. Additionally, full compaction occurs within tens of nanoseconds, orders of magnitude faster than the time scale of soot aging through condensation. An important implication is that in atmospheric soot aggregates, the rate of condensation determines how many necks are fractured simultaneously, affecting the restructuring pathway, e.g., producing highly compact, thinly-coated soot as observed in recent studies.

We introduce a novel framework that integrates Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) with Material Point Method (MPM) simulation to infer granular material properties from visual observations. Our approach begins by generating synthetic experimental data, simulating an plow interacting with sand. The experiment is rendered into realistic images as the photographic observations. These observations include multi-view images of the experiment's initial state and time-sequenced images from two fixed cameras. Using NeRF, we reconstruct the 3D geometry from the initial multi-view images, leveraging its capability to synthesize novel viewpoints and capture intricate surface details. The reconstructed geometry is then used to initialize material point positions for the MPM simulation, where the friction angle remains unknown. We render images of the simulation under the same camera setup and compare them to the observed images. By employing Bayesian optimization, we minimize the image loss to estimate the best-fitting friction angle. Our results demonstrate that friction angle can be estimated with an error within 2 degrees, highlighting the effectiveness of inverse analysis through purely visual observations. This approach offers a promising solution for characterizing granular materials in real-world scenarios where direct measurement is impractical or impossible.

The presence of linear paths in parameter space between two different network solutions in certain cases, i.e., linear mode connectivity (LMC), has garnered interest from both theoretical and practical fronts. There has been significant research that either practically designs algorithms catered for connecting networks by adjusting for the permutation symmetries as well as some others that more theoretically construct paths through which networks can be connected. Yet, the core reasons for the occurrence of LMC, when in fact it does occur, in the highly non-convex loss landscapes of neural networks are far from clear. In this work, we take a step towards understanding it by providing a model of how the loss landscape needs to behave topographically for LMC (or the lack thereof) to manifest. Concretely, we present a `mountainside and ridge' perspective that helps to neatly tie together different geometric features that can be spotted in the loss landscape along the training runs. We also complement this perspective by providing a theoretical analysis of the barrier height, for which we provide empirical support, and which additionally extends as a faithful predictor of layer-wise LMC. We close with a toy example that provides further intuition on how barriers arise in the first place, all in all, showcasing the larger aim of the work -- to provide a working model of the landscape and its topography for the occurrence of LMC.

Manual modeling of material parameters and 3D geometry is a time consuming yet essential task in the gaming and film industries. While recent advances in 3D reconstruction have enabled accurate approximations of scene geometry and appearance, these methods often fall short in relighting scenarios due to the lack of precise, spatially varying material parameters. At the same time, diffusion models operating on 2D images have shown strong performance in predicting physically based rendering (PBR) properties such as albedo, roughness, and metallicity. However, transferring these 2D material maps onto reconstructed 3D geometry remains a significant challenge. We propose a framework for fusing 2D material data into 3D geometry using a combination of novel learning-based and projection-based approaches. We begin by reconstructing scene geometry via Gaussian Splatting. From the input images, a diffusion model generates 2D maps for albedo, roughness, and metallic parameters. Any existing diffusion model that can convert images or videos to PBR materials can be applied. The predictions are further integrated into the 3D representation either by optimizing an image-based loss or by directly projecting the material parameters onto the Gaussians using Gaussian ray tracing. To enhance fine-scale accuracy and multi-view consistency, we further introduce a light-weight neural refinement step (Neural Merger), which takes ray-traced material features as input and produces detailed adjustments. Our results demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform existing techniques in both quantitative metrics and perceived visual realism. This enables more accurate, relightable, and photorealistic renderings from reconstructed scenes, significantly improving the realism and efficiency of asset creation workflows in content production pipelines.

We introduce Lagrangian Flow Networks (LFlows) for modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time. By construction, the proposed LFlows satisfy the continuity equation, a PDE describing mass conservation in its differentiable form. Our model is based on the insight that solutions to the continuity equation can be expressed as time-dependent density transformations via differentiable and invertible maps. This follows from classical theory of the existence and uniqueness of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields. Hence, we model fluid densities by transforming a base density with parameterized diffeomorphisms conditioned on time. The key benefit compared to methods relying on numerical ODE solvers or PINNs is that the analytic expression of the velocity is always consistent with changes in density. Furthermore, we require neither expensive numerical solvers, nor additional penalties to enforce the PDE. LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D, while being computationally efficient. As a real-world application, we model bird migration based on sparse weather radar measurements.

Deep generative vision models are now able to synthesize realistic-looking satellite imagery. But, the possibility of hallucinations prevents their adoption for risk-sensitive applications, such as generating materials for communicating climate change. To demonstrate this issue, we train a generative adversarial network (pix2pixHD) to create synthetic satellite imagery of future flooding and reforestation events. We find that a pure deep learning-based model can generate photorealistic flood visualizations but hallucinates floods at locations that were not susceptible to flooding. To address this issue, we propose to condition and evaluate generative vision models on segmentation maps of physics-based flood models. We show that our physics-conditioned model outperforms the pure deep learning-based model and a handcrafted baseline. We evaluate the generalization capability of our method to different remote sensing data and different climate-related events (reforestation). We publish our code and dataset which includes the data for a third case study of melting Arctic sea ice and >30,000 labeled HD image triplets -- or the equivalent of 5.5 million images at 128x128 pixels -- for segmentation guided image-to-image translation in Earth observation. Code and data is available at https://github.com/blutjens/eie-earth-public.

In the Lagrange-Newton method, where Newton's method is applied to a Lagrangian function that includes equality constraints, all stationary points are saddle points. It is therefore not possible to use a line-search method based on the value of the objective function; instead, the line search can operate on merit functions. In this report, we explore an alternative line-search method which is applicable to this case; it particulary addresses the damping of the step length in tight valleys. We propose a line-search criterion based on the divergence of the field of Newton step vectors. The visualization of the criterion for two-dimensional test functions reveals a network of ravines with flat bottom at the zero points of the criterion. The ravines are typically connected to stationary points. To traverse this ravine network in order to approach a stationary point, a zigzag strategy is devised. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the novel line-search strategy succeeds from most starting points in all test functions, but only exhibits the desired damping of the step length in some situations. At the present stage it is therefore difficult to appraise the utility of this contribution.

Generative modeling can be formulated as learning a mapping f such that its pushforward distribution matches the data distribution. The pushforward behavior can be carried out iteratively at inference time, for example in diffusion and flow-based models. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm called Drifting Models, which evolve the pushforward distribution during training and naturally admit one-step inference. We introduce a drifting field that governs the sample movement and achieves equilibrium when the distributions match. This leads to a training objective that allows the neural network optimizer to evolve the distribution. In experiments, our one-step generator achieves state-of-the-art results on ImageNet at 256 x 256 resolution, with an FID of 1.54 in latent space and 1.61 in pixel space. We hope that our work opens up new opportunities for high-quality one-step generation.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Validation of flood models, used to support risk mitigation strategies, remains challenging due to limited observations during extreme events. High-frequency, high-resolution optical imagery (~3 m), such as PlanetScope, offers new opportunities for flood mapping, although applications remain limited by cloud cover and the lack of labeled training data during disasters. To address this, we develop a flood mapping framework that integrates PlanetScope optical imagery with topographic features using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms. A Random Forest model was applied to expert-annotated flood masks to generate training labels for DL models, U-Net. Two U-Net models with ResNet18 backbone were trained using optical imagery only (4 bands) and optical imagery combined with Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) and topographic slope (6 bands). Hurricane Ida (September 2021), which caused catastrophic flooding across the eastern United States, including the New York City metropolitan area, was used as an example to evaluate the framework. Results demonstrate that the U-Net model with topographic features achieved very close performance to the optical-only configuration (F1=0.92 and IoU=0.85 by both modeling scenarios), indicating that HAND and slope provide only marginal value to inundation extent detection. The proposed framework offers a scalable and label-efficient approach for mapping inundation extent that enables modeling under data-scarce flood scenarios.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that the observed nonlinear dynamics in these coupled systems rests within either underlying human or natural processes, rather than the rates at which they interact. Using adoption of agricultural diversification practices as a case study, we show how two stable management paradigms (one dominated by conventional, homogeneous practices, the other by diversified practices) can emerge purely from temporal feedbacks between human decisions and ecological responses. We explore how this temporal mechanism of tipping points provides insight into designing more effective interventions that promote farmers transitions towards sustainable agriculture. Moreover, our flexible modeling framework could be applied to other cases to provide insight into numerous questions in social-ecological systems research and environmental policy.

The profound accumulation of precipitation during intense rainfall events can markedly degrade the quality of images, leading to the erosion of textural details. Despite the improvements observed in existing learning-based methods specialized for heavy rain removal, it is discerned that a significant proportion of these methods tend to overlook the precise reconstruction of the intricate details. In this work, we introduce a simple dual-stage progressive enhancement network, denoted as DPENet, aiming to achieve effective deraining while preserving the structural accuracy of rain-free images. This approach comprises two key modules, a rain streaks removal network (R^2Net) focusing on accurate rain removal, and a details reconstruction network (DRNet) designed to recover the textural details of rain-free images. Firstly, we introduce a dilated dense residual block (DDRB) within R^2Net, enabling the aggregation of high-level and low-level features. Secondly, an enhanced residual pixel-wise attention block (ERPAB) is integrated into DRNet to facilitate the incorporation of contextual information. To further enhance the fidelity of our approach, we employ a comprehensive loss function that accentuates both the marginal and regional accuracy of rain-free images. Extensive experiments conducted on publicly available benchmarks demonstrates the noteworthy efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed DPENet. The source code and pre-trained models are currently available at https://github.com/chdwyb/DPENet.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce "blurry" precipitation forecasts that overestimate drizzle and underestimate extremes. This study provides a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates with global mass and energy conservation schemes into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this solution using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0-degree grid spacing data. Verification results show large performance gains. The conservation schemes are found to reduce drizzle bias, whereas using terrain-following coordinates improves the estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Furthermore, a case study reveals that terrain-following coordinates capture near-surface winds better over mountains, offering AIWP models more accurate information on understanding the dynamics of precipitation processes. The proposed solution of this study can benefit a wide range of AIWP models and bring insights into how atmospheric domain knowledge can support the development of AIWP models.

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within the atmosphere they afford meteorologists the nuance needed to provide outlook on hazard. Deep learning models have thus far not proven skilful at km-scale atmospheric simulation, despite being competitive at coarser resolution with state-of-the-art global, medium-range weather forecasting. We present a generative diffusion model called StormCast, which emulates the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model-NOAA's state-of-the-art 3km operational CAM. StormCast autoregressively predicts 99 state variables at km scale using a 1-hour time step, with dense vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer, conditioned on 26 synoptic variables. We present evidence of successfully learnt km-scale dynamics including competitive 1-6 hour forecast skill for composite radar reflectivity alongside physically realistic convective cluster evolution, moist updrafts, and cold pool morphology. StormCast predictions maintain realistic power spectra for multiple predicted variables across multi-hour forecasts. Together, these results establish the potential for autoregressive ML to emulate CAMs -- opening up new km-scale frontiers for regional ML weather prediction and future climate hazard dynamical downscaling.

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

Natural disaster monitoring through continuous satellite observation requires processing multi-temporal data under strict operational constraints. This paper addresses flood detection, a critical application for hazard management, by developing an onboard change detection system that operates within the memory and computational limits of small satellites. We propose History Injection mechanism for Transformer models (HiT), that maintains historical context from previous observations while reducing data storage by over 99\% of original image size. Moreover, testing on the STTORM-CD flood dataset confirms that the HiT mechanism within the Prithvi-tiny foundation model maintains detection accuracy compared to the bi-temporal baseline. The proposed HiT-Prithvi model achieved 43 FPS on Jetson Orin Nano, a representative onboard hardware used in nanosats. This work establishes a practical framework for satellite-based continuous monitoring of natural disasters, supporting real-time hazard assessment without dependency on ground-based processing infrastructure. Architecture as well as model checkpoints is available at https://github.com/zaitra/HiT-change-detection .

Lagrangian turbulence lies at the core of numerous applied and fundamental problems related to the physics of dispersion and mixing in engineering, bio-fluids, atmosphere, oceans, and astrophysics. Despite exceptional theoretical, numerical, and experimental efforts conducted over the past thirty years, no existing models are capable of faithfully reproducing statistical and topological properties exhibited by particle trajectories in turbulence. We propose a machine learning approach, based on a state-of-the-art diffusion model, to generate single-particle trajectories in three-dimensional turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, thereby bypassing the need for direct numerical simulations or experiments to obtain reliable Lagrangian data. Our model demonstrates the ability to reproduce most statistical benchmarks across time scales, including the fat-tail distribution for velocity increments, the anomalous power law, and the increased intermittency around the dissipative scale. Slight deviations are observed below the dissipative scale, particularly in the acceleration and flatness statistics. Surprisingly, the model exhibits strong generalizability for extreme events, producing events of higher intensity and rarity that still match the realistic statistics. This paves the way for producing synthetic high-quality datasets for pre-training various downstream applications of Lagrangian turbulence.

Effective hydrological modeling and extreme weather analysis demand precipitation data at a kilometer-scale resolution, which is significantly finer than the 10 km scale offered by standard global products like IMERG. To address this, we propose the Wavelet Diffusion Model (WDM), a generative framework that achieves 10x spatial super-resolution (downscaling to 1 km) and delivers a 9x inference speedup over pixel-based diffusion models. WDM is a conditional diffusion model that learns the learns the complex structure of precipitation from MRMS radar data directly in the wavelet domain. By focusing on high-frequency wavelet coefficients, it generates exceptionally realistic and detailed 1-km precipitation fields. This wavelet-based approach produces visually superior results with fewer artifacts than pixel-space models, and delivers a significant gains in sampling efficiency. Our results demonstrate that WDM provides a robust solution to the dual challenges of accuracy and speed in geoscience super-resolution, paving the way for more reliable hydrological forecasts.

In the last decade many research efforts have been focused on understanding the rheology of disordered materials, and several theoretical predictions have been put forward regarding their yielding behavior. Nevertheless, not many experiments nor molecular dynamics simulations were dedicated to testing those theoretical predictions. Here we use computer simulations to study the yielding transition under two different loading schemes: standard simple shear dynamics, and self-propelled, dense active systems. In the active systems a yielding transition is observed as expected, when the self-propulsion is increased. However, the range of self-propulsions in which a pure liquid regime exist appears to vanish upon approaching the so-called "jamming point" at which solidity of soft-sphere packings is lost. Such an "active yielding" transition shares similarities with the generic yielding transition for shear flows. A Herschel-Bulkley law is observed in both loading scenarios, with a clear difference in the critical scaling exponents between the two, suggesting the existent of different universality classes for the yielding transition under different driving conditions. In addition, we present direct measurements of length and time scales for both driving scenarios. A comparison with theoretical predictions from recent literature reveals poor agreement with our numerical results.

Diffusion transformers (DiT) have already achieved appealing synthesis and scaling properties in content recreation, e.g., image and video generation. However, scaling laws of DiT are less explored, which usually offer precise predictions regarding optimal model size and data requirements given a specific compute budget. Therefore, experiments across a broad range of compute budgets, from 1e17 to 6e18 FLOPs are conducted to confirm the existence of scaling laws in DiT for the first time. Concretely, the loss of pretraining DiT also follows a power-law relationship with the involved compute. Based on the scaling law, we can not only determine the optimal model size and required data but also accurately predict the text-to-image generation loss given a model with 1B parameters and a compute budget of 1e21 FLOPs. Additionally, we also demonstrate that the trend of pre-training loss matches the generation performances (e.g., FID), even across various datasets, which complements the mapping from compute to synthesis quality and thus provides a predictable benchmark that assesses model performance and data quality at a reduced cost.

Most existing sandstorm image enhancement methods are based on traditional theory and prior knowledge, which often restrict their applicability in real-world scenarios. In addition, these approaches often adopt a strategy of color correction followed by dust removal, which makes the algorithm structure too complex. To solve the issue, we introduce a novel image restoration model, named all-in-one sandstorm removal network (AOSR-Net). This model is developed based on a re-formulated sandstorm scattering model, which directly establishes the image mapping relationship by integrating intermediate parameters. Such integration scheme effectively addresses the problems of over-enhancement and weak generalization in the field of sand dust image enhancement. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world sandstorm images demonstrate the superiority of the proposed AOSR-Net over state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms.

Advancements in computing power have made it possible to numerically simulate large-scale fluid-mechanical and/or particulate systems, many of which are integral to core industrial processes. Among the different numerical methods available, the discrete element method (DEM) provides one of the most accurate representations of a wide range of physical systems involving granular and discontinuous materials. Consequently, DEM has become a widely accepted approach for tackling engineering problems connected to granular flows and powder mechanics. Additionally, DEM can be integrated with grid-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods, enabling the simulation of chemical processes taking place, e.g., in fluidized beds. However, DEM is computationally intensive because of the intrinsic multiscale nature of particulate systems, restricting simulation duration or number of particles. Towards this end, NeuralDEM presents an end-to-end approach to replace slow numerical DEM routines with fast, adaptable deep learning surrogates. NeuralDEM is capable of picturing long-term transport processes across different regimes using macroscopic observables without any reference to microscopic model parameters. First, NeuralDEM treats the Lagrangian discretization of DEM as an underlying continuous field, while simultaneously modeling macroscopic behavior directly as additional auxiliary fields. Second, NeuralDEM introduces multi-branch neural operators scalable to real-time modeling of industrially-sized scenarios - from slow and pseudo-steady to fast and transient. Such scenarios have previously posed insurmountable challenges for deep learning models. Notably, NeuralDEM faithfully models coupled CFD-DEM fluidized bed reactors of 160k CFD cells and 500k DEM particles for trajectories of 28s. NeuralDEM will open many new doors to advanced engineering and much faster process cycles.

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

Diffusion models are among the most effective methods for image generation. This is in particular because, unlike GANs, they can be easily conditioned during training to produce elements with desired class or properties. However, guiding a pre-trained diffusion model to generate elements from previously unlabeled data is significantly more challenging. One of the possible solutions was given by the ADM-G guiding approach. Although ADM-G successfully generates elements from the given class, there is a significant quality gap compared to a model originally conditioned on this class. In particular, the FID score obtained by the ADM-G-guided diffusion model is nearly three times lower than the class-conditioned guidance. We demonstrate that this issue is partly due to ADM-G providing minimal guidance during the final stage of the denoising process. To address this problem, we propose GeoGuide, a guidance model based on tracing the distance of the diffusion model's trajectory from the data manifold. The main idea of GeoGuide is to produce normalized adjustments during the backward denoising process. As shown in the experiments, GeoGuide surpasses the probabilistic approach ADM-G with respect to both the FID scores and the quality of the generated images.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

The quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rates are calculated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model on in situ airborne measurement data of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The results show that diffusional growth rates varies in the range of 0.00025 - 0.0015(cm/s). The generic problem of the overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related with the choice of cm in the model. It is also shown from DNS experiment using Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model that the relative dispersion is constrained with average values in the range of ~ 0.2 - 0.37 (~ 0.1- 0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (dispersion ~ 0.36) and previous study over Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained from this study using CAIPEEX observation over Indian subcontinent. The dispersion based autoconversion-scheme for Indian region must be useful for the Indian summer monsoon precipitation calculation in the general circulation model. The present study also provide valuable guidance for the parameterization of effective radius, important for radiation scheme.

Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8^circ resolution and is built on the differentiable NeuralGCM framework. The model demonstrates significant improvements over existing general circulation models, the ERA5 reanalysis, and a global cloud-resolving model in simulating precipitation. Our approach yields reduced biases, a more realistic precipitation distribution, improved representation of extremes, and a more accurate diurnal cycle. Furthermore, it outperforms the mid-range precipitation forecast of the ECMWF ensemble. This advance paves the way for more reliable simulations of current climate and demonstrates how training on observations can be used to directly improve GCMs.

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is one of the common environmental problems in the coal mining industry that was formed by the oxidation of sulfide minerals in the overburden or waste rock. The prediction of acid generation through AMD is important to do in overburden management and planning the post-mining land use. One of the methods used to predict AMD is a lab-scale kinetic test to determine the rate of acid formation over time using representative samples in the field. However, this test requires a long-time procedure and large amount of chemical reagents lead to inefficient cost. On the other hand, there is potential for machine learning to learn the pattern behind the lab-scale kinetic test data. This study describes an approach to use artificial neural network (ANN) modeling to predict the result from lab-scale kinetic tests. Various ANN model is used based on 83 weeks experiments of lab-scale kinetic tests with 100\% potential acid-forming rock. The model approaches the monitoring of pH, ORP, conductivity, TDS, sulfate, and heavy metals (Fe and Mn). The overall Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) obtained in this study was 0.99 on training and validation data, indicating a strong correlation and accurate prediction compared to the actual lab-scale kinetic tests data. This show the ANN ability to learn patterns, trends, and seasonality from past data for accurate forecasting, thereby highlighting its significant contribution to solving AMD problems. This research is also expected to establish the foundation for a new approach to predict AMD, with time efficient, accurate, and cost-effectiveness in future applications.

We investigate a coupled system of partial differential equations modeling the interaction between Brinkman flow, biofilm evolution, and nutrient transport in a porous medium. The model captures the mutual influence between the fluid velocity and the biofilm through drag and diffusion coefficients that depend on the local biofilm volume fraction. A hard constraint on the admissible range of the biofilm fraction is incorporated through the subdifferential of an indicator functional, which leads naturally to an evolution variational inequality formulation for the biofilm dynamics. Assuming standard coercivity, ellipticity, and growth conditions on the model coefficients and reaction terms, we prove the global-in-time existence of weak solutions. The analysis relies on a decomposition of the system into three interconnected subproblems: the Brinkman equation with a fixed biofilm profile, the constrained biofilm evolution treated through maximal monotone operator theory, and the nutrient equation viewed as a semilinear parabolic problem. These components are then coupled through a Leray--Schauder type fixed-point argument, with the passage to the limit justified by Aubin--Lions and Simon compactness results. We further establish the nonnegativity of the nutrient concentration under a natural quasi-positivity assumption on the reaction term. Finally, we provide conditional uniqueness results for weak solutions in two spatial dimensions under additional smallness assumptions.

Diffusion models have shown remarkable results in generating 2D images and small-scale 3D objects. However, their application to the synthesis of large-scale 3D scenes has been rarely explored. This is mainly due to the inherent complexity and bulky size of 3D scenery data, particularly outdoor scenes, and the limited availability of comprehensive real-world datasets, which makes training a stable scene diffusion model challenging. In this work, we explore how to effectively generate large-scale 3D scenes using the coarse-to-fine paradigm. We introduce a framework, the Pyramid Discrete Diffusion model (PDD), which employs scale-varied diffusion models to progressively generate high-quality outdoor scenes. Experimental results of PDD demonstrate our successful exploration in generating 3D scenes both unconditionally and conditionally. We further showcase the data compatibility of the PDD model, due to its multi-scale architecture: a PDD model trained on one dataset can be easily fine-tuned with another dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/yuhengliu02/pyramid-discrete-diffusion.

Traditional fluid dynamics simulation pipelines combine numerical solvers with rendering, producing highly realistic results but at considerable computational cost. Diffusion-based generative video models offer a faster alternative, yet often ignore physical laws and thus fail to capture consistent dynamics. We propose a physics-informed video diffusion framework that jointly generates visual outputs and physical states. Unlike prior two-stage approaches that first simulate the physical variables and then render, we directly integrate physics constraints into the generative process, enabling simultaneous prediction of physical states and realistic videos without a separate rendering step. Built on the two-dimensional shallow water equations with terrain topography, our method produces temporally coherent water flow while maintaining physical plausibility. Experiments show that it outperforms purely data-driven video diffusion baselines in both realism and physical fidelity, while generating videos significantly faster than traditional simulation-plus-rendering pipelines.

Landmines remain a threat to war-affected communities for years after conflicts have ended, partly due to the laborious nature of demining tasks. Humanitarian demining operations begin by collecting relevant information from the sites to be cleared, which is then analyzed by human experts to determine the potential risk of remaining landmines. In this paper, we propose RELand system to support these tasks, which consists of three major components. We (1) provide general feature engineering and label assigning guidelines to enhance datasets for landmine risk modeling, which are widely applicable to global demining routines, (2) formulate landmine presence as a classification problem and design a novel interpretable model based on sparse feature masking and invariant risk minimization, and run extensive evaluation under proper protocols that resemble real-world demining operations to show a significant improvement over the state-of-the-art, and (3) build an interactive web interface to suggest priority areas for demining organizations. We are currently collaborating with a humanitarian demining NGO in Colombia that is using our system as part of their field operations in two areas recently prioritized for demining.

Recent advances in 3D X-ray Computed Tomographic (CT) sensors have stimulated research efforts to unveil the extremely complex micro-scale processes that control the activity of soil microorganisms. Voxel-based description (up to hundreds millions voxels) of the pore space can be extracted, from grey level 3D CT scanner images, by means of simple image processing tools. Classical methods for numerical simulation of biological dynamics using mesh of voxels, such as Lattice Boltzmann Model (LBM), are too much time consuming. Thus, the use of more compact and reliable geometrical representations of pore space can drastically decrease the computational cost of the simulations. Several recent works propose basic analytic volume primitives (e.g. spheres, generalized cylinders, ellipsoids) to define a piece-wise approximation of pore space for numerical simulation of draining, diffusion and microbial decomposition. Such approaches work well but the drawback is that it generates approximation errors. In the present work, we study another alternative where pore space is described by means of geometrically relevant connected subsets of voxels (regions) computed from the curvilinear skeleton. Indeed, many works use the curvilinear skeleton (3D medial axis) for analyzing and partitioning 3D shapes within various domains (medicine, material sciences, petroleum engineering, etc.) but only a few ones in soil sciences. Within the context of soil sciences, most studies dealing with 3D medial axis focus on the determination of pore throats. Here, we segment pore space using curvilinear skeleton in order to achieve numerical simulation of microbial decomposition (including diffusion processes). We validate simulation outputs by comparison with other methods using different pore space geometrical representations (balls, voxels).

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel physics-based schemes designed to enforce the conservation of global dry air mass, moisture budget, and total atmospheric energy in AIWP models. The schemes are highly modular, allowing for seamless integration into a wide range of AI model architectures. Forecast experiments are conducted to demonstrate the benefit of conservation schemes using FuXi, an example AIWP model, modified and adapted for 1.0-degree grid spacing. Verification results show that the conservation schemes can guide the model in producing forecasts that obey conservation laws. The forecast skills of upper-air and surface variables are also improved, with longer forecast lead times receiving larger benefits. Notably, large performance gains are found in the total precipitation forecasts, owing to the reduction of drizzle bias. The proposed conservation schemes establish a foundation for implementing other physics-based schemes in the future. They also provide a new way to integrate atmospheric domain knowledge into the design and refinement of AIWP models.

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling such global inputs to km-scale, as a cost-effective machine learning alternative. The model is trained to predict 2km data from a regional weather model over Taiwan, conditioned on a 25km global reanalysis. To address the large resolution ratio, different physics involved at different scales and prediction of channels beyond those in the input data, we employ a two-step approach where a UNet predicts the mean and a corrector diffusion (CorrDiff) model predicts the residual. CorrDiff exhibits encouraging skill in bulk MAE and CRPS scores. The predicted spectra and distributions from CorrDiff faithfully recover important power law relationships in the target data. Case studies of coherent weather phenomena show that CorrDiff can help sharpen wind and temperature gradients that co-locate with intense rainfall in cold front, and can help intensify typhoons and synthesize rain band structures. Calibration of model uncertainty remains challenging. The prospect of unifying methods like CorrDiff with coarser resolution global weather models implies a potential for global-to-regional multi-scale machine learning simulation.

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices, based on a recently proposed multi-scale analogue of the standard skewness and kurtosis called `Scattering Spectra'. This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness. Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility and allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S\&P500 that outperform both the current version of the Path-Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.

Colloquially speaking, image generation models based upon diffusion processes are frequently said to exhibit "hallucinations," samples that could never occur in the training data. But where do such hallucinations come from? In this paper, we study a particular failure mode in diffusion models, which we term mode interpolation. Specifically, we find that diffusion models smoothly "interpolate" between nearby data modes in the training set, to generate samples that are completely outside the support of the original training distribution; this phenomenon leads diffusion models to generate artifacts that never existed in real data (i.e., hallucinations). We systematically study the reasons for, and the manifestation of this phenomenon. Through experiments on 1D and 2D Gaussians, we show how a discontinuous loss landscape in the diffusion model's decoder leads to a region where any smooth approximation will cause such hallucinations. Through experiments on artificial datasets with various shapes, we show how hallucination leads to the generation of combinations of shapes that never existed. Finally, we show that diffusion models in fact know when they go out of support and hallucinate. This is captured by the high variance in the trajectory of the generated sample towards the final few backward sampling process. Using a simple metric to capture this variance, we can remove over 95% of hallucinations at generation time while retaining 96% of in-support samples. We conclude our exploration by showing the implications of such hallucination (and its removal) on the collapse (and stabilization) of recursive training on synthetic data with experiments on MNIST and 2D Gaussians dataset. We release our code at https://github.com/locuslab/diffusion-model-hallucination.

We explore adapting foundation models (FMs) from the computer vision domain to geoscience. FMs, large neural networks trained on massive datasets, excel in diverse tasks with remarkable adaptability and generality. However, geoscience faces challenges like lacking curated training datasets and high computational costs for developing specialized FMs. This study considers adapting FMs from computer vision to geoscience, analyzing their scale, adaptability, and generality for geoscientific data analysis. We introduce a workflow that leverages existing computer vision FMs, fine-tuning them for geoscientific tasks, reducing development costs while enhancing accuracy. Through experiments, we demonstrate this workflow's effectiveness in broad applications to process and interpret geoscientific data of lunar images, seismic data, DAS arrays and so on. Our findings introduce advanced ML techniques to geoscience, proving the feasibility and advantages of cross-domain FMs adaptation, driving further advancements in geoscientific data analysis and offering valuable insights for FMs applications in other scientific domains.

The heavy-tailed nature of precipitation intensity impedes precise precipitation nowcasting. Standard models that optimize pixel-wise losses are prone to regression-to-the-mean bias, which blurs extreme values. Existing Fourier-based methods also lack the spatial localization needed to resolve transient convective cells. To overcome these intrinsic limitations, we propose WADEPre, a wavelet-based decomposition model for extreme precipitation that transitions the modeling into the wavelet domain. By leveraging the Discrete Wavelet Transform for explicit decomposition, WADEPre employs a dual-branch architecture: an Approximation Network to model stable, low-frequency advection, isolating deterministic trends from statistical bias, and a spatially localized Detail Network to capture high-frequency stochastic convection, resolving transient singularities and preserving sharp boundaries. A subsequent Refiner module then dynamically reconstructs these decoupled multi-scale components into the final high-fidelity forecast. To address optimization instability, we introduce a multi-scale curriculum learning strategy that progressively shifts supervision from coarse scales to fine-grained details. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and Shanghai Radar datasets demonstrate that WADEPre achieves state-of-the-art performance, yielding significant improvements in capturing extreme thresholds and maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre.

The machine learning community has recently had increased interest in the climate and disaster damage domain due to a marked increased occurrences of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, forest fires, floods, earthquakes). However, not enough attention has been devoted to mitigating probable destruction from impending natural hazards. We explore this crucial space by predicting building-level damages on a before-the-fact basis that would allow state actors and non-governmental organizations to be best equipped with resource distribution to minimize or preempt losses. We introduce PreDisM that employs an ensemble of ResNets and fully connected layers over decision trees to capture image-level and meta-level information to accurately estimate weakness of man-made structures to disaster-occurrences. Our model performs well and is responsive to tuning across types of disasters and highlights the space of preemptive hazard damage modelling.

Catastrophic forgetting remains a central obstacle for continual learning in neural models. Popular approaches -- replay and elastic weight consolidation (EWC) -- have limitations: replay requires a strong generator and is prone to distributional drift, while EWC implicitly assumes a shared optimum across tasks and typically uses a diagonal Fisher approximation. In this work, we study the gradient geometry of diffusion models, which can already produce high-quality replay data. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that, in the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime, per-sample gradients become strongly collinear, yielding an empirical Fisher that is effectively rank-1 and aligned with the mean gradient. Leveraging this structure, we propose a rank-1 variant of EWC that is as cheap as the diagonal approximation yet captures the dominant curvature direction. We pair this penalty with a replay-based approach to encourage parameter sharing across tasks while mitigating drift. On class-incremental image generation datasets (MNIST, FashionMNIST, CIFAR-10, ImageNet-1k), our method consistently improves average FID and reduces forgetting relative to replay-only and diagonal-EWC baselines. In particular, forgetting is nearly eliminated on MNIST and FashionMNIST and is more than halved on ImageNet-1k. These results suggest that diffusion models admit an approximately rank-1 Fisher. With a better Fisher estimate, EWC becomes a strong complement to replay: replay encourages parameter sharing across tasks, while EWC effectively constrains replay-induced drift.

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

Modeling Lagrangian turbulence remains a fundamental challenge due to its multiscale, intermittent, and non-Gaussian nature. Recent advances in data-driven diffusion models have enabled the generation of realistic Lagrangian velocity trajectories that accurately reproduce statistical properties across scales and capture rare extreme events. This study investigates three key aspects of diffusion-based modeling for Lagrangian turbulence. First, we assess architectural robustness by comparing a U-Net backbone with a transformer-based alternative, finding strong consistency in generated trajectories, with only minor discrepancies at small scales. Second, leveraging a deterministic variant of diffusion model formulation, namely the deterministic denoising diffusion implicit model (DDIM), we identify structured features in the initial latent noise that align consistently with extreme acceleration events. Third, we explore accelerated generation by reducing the number of diffusion steps, and find that DDIM enables substantial speedups with minimal loss of statistical fidelity. These findings highlight the robustness of diffusion models and their potential for interpretable, scalable modeling of complex turbulent systems.

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Landslides are one of the most critical and destructive geohazards. Widespread development of human activities and settlements combined with the effects of climate change on weather are resulting in a high increase in the frequency and destructive power of landslides, making them a major threat to human life and the economy. In this paper, we explore methodologies to map newly-occurred landslides using Sentinel-2 imagery automatically. All approaches presented are framed as a bi-temporal change detection problem, requiring only a pair of Sentinel-2 images, taken respectively before and after a landslide-triggering event. Furthermore, we introduce a novel deep learning architecture for fusing Sentinel-2 bi-temporal image pairs with Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, showcasing its promising performances w.r.t. other change detection models in the literature. As a parallel task, we address limitations in existing datasets by creating a novel geodatabase, which includes manually validated open-access landslide inventories over heterogeneous ecoregions of the world. We release both code and dataset with an open-source license.

Offline reinforcement learning aims to train agents from pre-collected datasets. However, this comes with the added challenge of estimating the value of behaviors not covered in the dataset. Model-based methods offer a potential solution by training an approximate dynamics model, which then allows collection of additional synthetic data via rollouts in this model. The prevailing theory treats this approach as online RL in an approximate dynamics model, and any remaining performance gap is therefore understood as being due to dynamics model errors. In this paper, we analyze this assumption and investigate how popular algorithms perform as the learned dynamics model is improved. In contrast to both intuition and theory, if the learned dynamics model is replaced by the true error-free dynamics, existing model-based methods completely fail. This reveals a key oversight: The theoretical foundations assume sampling of full horizon rollouts in the learned dynamics model; however, in practice, the number of model-rollout steps is aggressively reduced to prevent accumulating errors. We show that this truncation of rollouts results in a set of edge-of-reach states at which we are effectively ``bootstrapping from the void.'' This triggers pathological value overestimation and complete performance collapse. We term this the edge-of-reach problem. Based on this new insight, we fill important gaps in existing theory, and reveal how prior model-based methods are primarily addressing the edge-of-reach problem, rather than model-inaccuracy as claimed. Finally, we propose Reach-Aware Value Learning (RAVL), a simple and robust method that directly addresses the edge-of-reach problem and hence - unlike existing methods - does not fail as the dynamics model is improved. Code open-sourced at: github.com/anyasims/edge-of-reach.

Is natural-language-driven earth observation data analysis now feasible with the assistance of Large Language Models (LLMs)? For open science in service of public interest, feasibility requires reliably high accuracy, interactive latencies, low (sustainable) costs, open LLMs, and openly maintainable software -- hence, the challenge. What are the techniques and programming system requirements necessary for satisfying these constraints, and what is the corresponding development and maintenance burden in practice? This study lays the groundwork for exploring these questions, introducing an impactful earth science use-case, and providing a software framework with evaluation data and metrics, along with initial results from employing model scaling, prompt-optimization, and inference-time scaling optimization techniques. While we attain high accuracy (near 100%) across 10 of 11 metrics, the analysis further considers cost (token-spend), latency, and maintainability across this space of techniques. Finally, we enumerate opportunities for further research, general programming and evaluation framework development, and ongoing work for a comprehensive, deployable solution. This is a call for collaboration and contribution.

Large-scale land enclosure for speculative mega-development constitutes a non-equilibrium spatial process whose velocity, topology, and irreversibility remain poorly quantified. We study the Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 (PIK2) coastal mega-development north of Jakarta, Indonesia, using eight years (2017--2024) of Sentinel-2 land-use/land-cover (LULC) data at 10-meter resolution. The landscape is projected onto a Marxian probability simplex partitioning terrestrial pixels into Commons, Agrarian, and Capital fractions. Fisher-Rao (FR) geodesic distances on this simplex identify a transformation pulse of 0.405~rad/yr during 2019--2020, coinciding with major construction activity. Absorbing Markov chain analysis yields expected absorption times into the built environment of 46.0~years for cropland and 38.1~years for tree cover, with a pooled built-area self-retention rate of 96.4%. Percolation analysis reveals that a giant connected component containing 89--95% of all built pixels persists at occupation probabilities p in [0.096, 0.162], far below the random percolation threshold p_c approx 0.593, indicating planned rather than stochastic spatial growth. The box-counting fractal dimension of the urban boundary increases from d_f = 1.316 to 1.397, consistent with increasingly irregular frontier expansion. These results suggest that information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can characterize the kinematic and topological signatures of capitalist spatial accumulation with quantitative precision.

Surficial geologic mapping is essential for understanding Earth surface processes, addressing modern challenges such as climate change and national security, and supporting common applications in engineering and resource management. However, traditional mapping methods are labor-intensive, limiting spatial coverage and introducing potential biases. To address these limitations, we introduce EarthScape, a novel, AI-ready multimodal dataset specifically designed for surficial geologic mapping and Earth surface analysis. EarthScape integrates high-resolution aerial RGB and near-infrared (NIR) imagery, digital elevation models (DEM), multi-scale DEM-derived terrain features, and hydrologic and infrastructure vector data. The dataset provides detailed annotations for seven distinct surficial geologic classes encompassing various geological processes. We present a comprehensive data processing pipeline using open-sourced raw data and establish baseline benchmarks using different spatial modalities to demonstrate the utility of EarthScape. As a living dataset with a vision for expansion, EarthScape bridges the gap between computer vision and Earth sciences, offering a valuable resource for advancing research in multimodal learning, geospatial analysis, and geological mapping. Our code is available at https://github.com/masseygeo/earthscape.

Kilometer-scale simulations of the atmosphere are an important tool for assessing local weather extremes and climate impacts, but computational expense limits their use to small regions, short periods, and limited ensembles. Machine learning offers a pathway to efficiently emulate these high-resolution simulations. Here we introduce HiRO-ACE, a two-stage AI modeling framework combining a stochastic version of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2S) with diffusion-based downscaling (HiRO) to generate 3 km precipitation fields over arbitrary regions of the globe. Both components are trained on data derived from a decade of atmospheric simulation by X-SHiELD, a 3 km global storm-resolving model. HiRO performs a 32x downscaling--generating 3 km 6-hourly precipitation from coarse 100 km inputs by training on paired high-resolution and coarsened X-SHiELD outputs. ACE2S is a 1^circ times 1^circ (sim100 km) stochastic autoregressive global atmosphere emulator that maintains grid-scale precipitation variability consistent with coarsened X-SHiELD, enabling its outputs to be ingested by HiRO without additional tuning. HiRO-ACE reproduces the distribution of extreme precipitation rates through the 99.99th percentile, with time-mean precipitation biases below 10% almost everywhere. The framework generates plausible tropical cyclones, fronts, and convective events from poorly resolved coarse inputs. Its computational efficiency allows generation of 6-hourly high-resolution regional precipitation for decades of simulated climate within a single day using one H100 GPU, while the probabilistic design enables ensemble generation for quantifying uncertainty. This establishes an AI-enabled pathway for affordably leveraging the realism of expensive km-scale simulations to support local climate adaptation planning and extreme event risk assessment.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a 0.05^circ grid up to 7 days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWF HRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AI- and physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.

Confronting the escalating threat of climate change requires innovative and large-scale interventions. This paper presents a bold proposal to employ a buried nuclear explosion in a remote basaltic seabed for pulverizing basalt, thereby accelerating carbon sequestration through Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW). By precisely locating the explosion beneath the seabed, we aim to confine debris, radiation, and energy while ensuring rapid rock weathering at a scale substantial enough to make a meaningful dent in atmospheric carbon levels. Our analysis outlines the parameters essential for efficient carbon capture and minimal collateral effects, emphasizing that a yield on the order of gigatons is critical for global climate impact. Although this approach may appear radical, we illustrate its feasibility by examining safety factors, preservation of local ecosystems, political considerations, and financial viability. This work argues for reimagining nuclear technology not merely as a destructive force but as a potential catalyst for decarbonization, thereby inviting further exploration of pioneering solutions in the fight against climate change.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it. In this work, we introduce a novel generative modeling framework grounded in phase space dynamics, where a phase space is defined as {an augmented space encompassing both position and velocity.} Leveraging insights from Stochastic Optimal Control, we construct a path measure in the phase space that enables efficient sampling. {In contrast to DMs, our framework demonstrates the capability to generate realistic data points at an early stage of dynamics propagation.} This early prediction sets the stage for efficient data generation by leveraging additional velocity information along the trajectory. On standard image generation benchmarks, our model yields favorable performance over baselines in the regime of small Number of Function Evaluations (NFEs). Furthermore, our approach rivals the performance of diffusion models equipped with efficient sampling techniques, underscoring its potential as a new tool generative modeling.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Geo-Foundational Models (GFMs) enable fast and reliable extraction of spatiotemporal information from satellite imagery, improving flood inundation mapping by leveraging location and time embeddings. Despite their potential, it remains unclear whether GFMs outperform traditional models like U-Net. A systematic comparison across sensors and data availability scenarios is still lacking, which is an essential step to guide end-users in model selection. To address this, we evaluate three GFMs, Prithvi 2.0, Clay V1.5, DOFA, and UViT (a Prithvi variant), against TransNorm, U-Net, and Attention U-Net using PlanetScope, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2. We observe competitive performance among all GFMs, with only 2-5% variation between the best and worst models across sensors. Clay outperforms others on PlanetScope (0.79 mIoU) and Sentinel-2 (0.70), while Prithvi leads on Sentinel-1 (0.57). In leave-one-region-out cross-validation across five regions, Clay shows slightly better performance across all sensors (mIoU: 0.72(0.04), 0.66(0.07), 0.51(0.08)) compared to Prithvi (0.70(0.05), 0.64(0.09), 0.49(0.13)) and DOFA (0.67(0.07), 0.64(0.04), 0.49(0.09)) for PlanetScope, Sentinel-2, and Sentinel-1, respectively. Across all 19 sites, leave-one-region-out cross-validation reveals a 4% improvement by Clay compared to U-Net. Visual inspection highlights Clay's superior ability to retain fine details. Few-shot experiments show Clay achieves 0.64 mIoU on PlanetScope with just five training images, outperforming Prithvi (0.24) and DOFA (0.35). In terms of computational time, Clay is a better choice due to its smaller model size (26M parameters), making it ~3x faster than Prithvi (650M) and 2x faster than DOFA (410M). Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest GFMs offer small to moderate improvements in flood mapping accuracy at lower computational cost and labeling effort compared to traditional U-Net.

The diffusion model is a state-of-the-art generative model that generates an image by applying a neural network iteratively. Moreover, this generation process is regarded as an algorithm solving an ordinary differential equation or a stochastic differential equation. Based on the analysis of the truncation error of the diffusion ODE and SDE, our study proposes a training-free algorithm that generates high-quality 512 x 512 and 1024 x 1024 images in eight steps, with flexible guidance scales. To the best of my knowledge, our algorithm is the first one that samples a 1024 x 1024 resolution image in 8 steps with an FID performance comparable to that of the latest distillation model, but without additional training. Meanwhile, our algorithm can also generate a 512 x 512 image in 8 steps, and its FID performance is better than the inference result using state-of-the-art ODE solver DPM++ 2m in 20 steps. We validate our eight-step image generation algorithm using the COCO 2014, COCO 2017, and LAION datasets. And our best FID performance is 15.7, 22.35, and 17.52. While the FID performance of DPM++2m is 17.3, 23.75, and 17.33. Further, it also outperforms the state-of-the-art AMED-plugin solver, whose FID performance is 19.07, 25.50, and 18.06. We also apply the algorithm in five-step inference without additional training, for which the best FID performance in the datasets mentioned above is 19.18, 23.24, and 19.61, respectively, and is comparable to the performance of the state-of-the-art AMED Pulgin solver in eight steps, SDXL-turbo in four steps, and the state-of-the-art diffusion distillation model Flash Diffusion in five steps. We also validate our algorithm in synthesizing 1024 * 1024 images within 6 steps, whose FID performance only has a limited distance to the latest distillation algorithm. The code is in repo: https://github.com/TheLovesOfLadyPurple/Hyperparameters-are-all-you-need

Natural and expressive human motion generation is the holy grail of computer animation. It is a challenging task, due to the diversity of possible motion, human perceptual sensitivity to it, and the difficulty of accurately describing it. Therefore, current generative solutions are either low-quality or limited in expressiveness. Diffusion models, which have already shown remarkable generative capabilities in other domains, are promising candidates for human motion due to their many-to-many nature, but they tend to be resource hungry and hard to control. In this paper, we introduce Motion Diffusion Model (MDM), a carefully adapted classifier-free diffusion-based generative model for the human motion domain. MDM is transformer-based, combining insights from motion generation literature. A notable design-choice is the prediction of the sample, rather than the noise, in each diffusion step. This facilitates the use of established geometric losses on the locations and velocities of the motion, such as the foot contact loss. As we demonstrate, MDM is a generic approach, enabling different modes of conditioning, and different generation tasks. We show that our model is trained with lightweight resources and yet achieves state-of-the-art results on leading benchmarks for text-to-motion and action-to-motion. https://guytevet.github.io/mdm-page/ .

MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit) is an open source large-scale agent-based transportation planning project applied to various areas like road transport, public transport, freight transport, regional evacuation, etc. BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) framework extends MATSim to enable powerful and scalable analysis of urban transportation systems. The agents from the BEAM simulation exhibit 'mode choice' behavior based on multinomial logit model. In our study, we consider eight mode choices viz. bike, car, walk, ride hail, driving to transit, walking to transit, ride hail to transit, and ride hail pooling. The 'alternative specific constants' for each mode choice are critical hyperparameters in a configuration file related to a particular scenario under experimentation. We use the 'Urbansim-10k' BEAM scenario (with 10,000 population size) for all our experiments. Since these hyperparameters affect the simulation in complex ways, manual calibration methods are time consuming. We present a parallel Bayesian optimization method with early stopping rule to achieve fast convergence for the given multi-in-multi-out problem to its optimal configurations. Our model is based on an open source HpBandSter package. This approach combines hierarchy of several 1D Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) with a cheap evaluator (Hyperband, a single multidimensional KDE). Our model has also incorporated extrapolation based early stopping rule. With our model, we could achieve a 25% L1 norm for a large-scale BEAM simulation in fully autonomous manner. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind applied to large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations. This work can be useful for surrogate modeling of scenarios with very large populations.

Fracture is one of the main causes of failure in engineering structures. Phase field methods coupled with adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) techniques have been widely used to model crack propagation due to their ease of implementation and scalability. However, phase field methods can still be computationally demanding making them unfeasible for high-throughput design applications. Machine learning (ML) models such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown their ability to emulate complex dynamic problems with speed-ups orders of magnitude faster compared to high-fidelity simulators. In this work, we present a dynamic mesh-based GNN framework for emulating phase field simulations of crack propagation with AMR for different crack configurations. The developed framework - ADAPTive mesh-based graph neural network (ADAPT-GNN) - exploits the benefits of both ML methods and AMR by describing the graph representation at each time-step as the refined mesh itself. Using ADAPT-GNN, we predict the evolution of displacement fields and scalar damage field (or phase field) with high accuracy compared to conventional phase field fracture model. We also compute crack stress fields with high accuracy using the predicted displacements and phase field parameter. Finally, we observe speed up of 15-36x compared to serial execution of the phase field model.

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

Foundation models are powerful technologies: how they are released publicly directly shapes their societal impact. In this position paper, we focus on open foundation models, defined here as those with broadly available model weights (e.g. Llama 2, Stable Diffusion XL). We identify five distinctive properties (e.g. greater customizability, poor monitoring) of open foundation models that lead to both their benefits and risks. Open foundation models present significant benefits, with some caveats, that span innovation, competition, the distribution of decision-making power, and transparency. To understand their risks of misuse, we design a risk assessment framework for analyzing their marginal risk. Across several misuse vectors (e.g. cyberattacks, bioweapons), we find that current research is insufficient to effectively characterize the marginal risk of open foundation models relative to pre-existing technologies. The framework helps explain why the marginal risk is low in some cases, clarifies disagreements about misuse risks by revealing that past work has focused on different subsets of the framework with different assumptions, and articulates a way forward for more constructive debate. Overall, our work helps support a more grounded assessment of the societal impact of open foundation models by outlining what research is needed to empirically validate their theoretical benefits and risks.

Open-access multispectral imagery from missions like Landsat 8-9 and Sentinel-2 has fueled the development of geospatial foundation models (GFMs) for humanitarian and environmental applications. Yet, their deployment remains limited by (i) the absence of automated geospatial data pipelines and (ii) the large size of fine-tuned models. Existing GFMs lack workflows for processing raw satellite imagery, and downstream adaptations often retain the full complexity of the original encoder. We present InstaGeo, an open-source, end-to-end framework that addresses these challenges by integrating: (1) automated data curation to transform raw imagery into model-ready datasets; (2) task-specific model distillation to derive compact, compute-efficient models; and (3) seamless deployment as interactive web-map applications. Using InstaGeo, we reproduced datasets from three published studies and trained models with marginal mIoU differences of -0.73 pp for flood mapping, -0.20 pp for crop segmentation, and +1.79 pp for desert locust prediction. The distilled models are up to 8x smaller than standard fine-tuned counterparts, reducing FLOPs and CO2 emissions with minimal accuracy loss. Leveraging InstaGeo's streamlined data pipeline, we also curated a larger crop segmentation dataset, achieving a state-of-the-art mIoU of 60.65%, a 12 pp improvement over prior baselines. Moreover, InstaGeo enables users to progress from raw data to model deployment within a single working day. By unifying data preparation, model compression, and deployment, InstaGeo transforms research-grade GFMs into practical, low-carbon tools for real-time, large-scale Earth observation. This approach shifts geospatial AI toward data quality and application-driven innovation. Source code, datasets, and model checkpoints are available at: https://github.com/instadeepai/InstaGeo-E2E-Geospatial-ML.git

The industrial application motivating this work is the fatigue computation of aircraft engines' high-pressure turbine blades. The material model involves nonlinear elastoviscoplastic behavior laws, for which the parameters depend on the temperature. For this application, the temperature loading is not accurately known and can reach values relatively close to the creep temperature: important nonlinear effects occur and the solution strongly depends on the used thermal loading. We consider a nonlinear reduced order model able to compute, in the exploitation phase, the behavior of the blade for a new temperature field loading. The sensitivity of the solution to the temperature makes {the classical unenriched proper orthogonal decomposition method} fail. In this work, we propose a new error indicator, quantifying the error made by the reduced order model in computational complexity independent of the size of the high-fidelity reference model. In our framework, when the {error indicator} becomes larger than a given tolerance, the reduced order model is updated using one time step solution of the high-fidelity reference model. The approach is illustrated on a series of academic test cases and applied on a setting of industrial complexity involving 5 million degrees of freedom, where the whole procedure is computed in parallel with distributed memory.

Generative models have demonstrated remarkable success in domains such as text, image, and video synthesis. In this work, we explore the application of generative models to fluid dynamics, specifically for turbulence simulation, where classical numerical solvers are computationally expensive. We propose a novel stochastic generative model based on stochastic interpolants, which enables probabilistic forecasting while incorporating physical constraints such as energy stability and divergence-freeness. Unlike conventional stochastic generative models, which are often agnostic to underlying physical laws, our approach embeds energy consistency by making the parameters of the stochastic interpolant learnable coefficients. We evaluate our method on a benchmark turbulence problem - Kolmogorov flow - demonstrating superior accuracy and stability over state-of-the-art alternatives such as autoregressive conditional diffusion models (ACDMs) and PDE-Refiner. Furthermore, we achieve stable results for significantly longer roll-outs than standard stochastic interpolants. Our results highlight the potential of physics-aware generative models in accelerating and enhancing turbulence simulations while preserving fundamental conservation properties.

The presence of thermal gradients in alloys often leads to non-uniformity in concentration profiles, which can induce the thermomigration of microstructural features such as precipitates. To investigate such microstructural changes, we present a phase-field model that incorporates coupling between concentration and thermal gradients. First, we simulated the evolution of non-uniform concentration profiles in the single-phase regions of Fe-C and Fe-N alloy systems due to imposed thermal gradients. To validate our model with the classical experiments performed by Darken and Oriani, we studied the evolution of spatially varying concentration profiles where thermal gradients encompass single-phase and two-phase regions. We developed a parameterized thermodynamic description of the two-phase region of a binary alloy to systematically study the effect of interactions between chemically-driven and thermal gradient-driven diffusion of solute on the evolution of precipitates. Our simulations show how thermal gradient, precipitate size, and interparticle distance influence the migration and associated morphological changes of precipitates. The composition profiles and migration rates obtained from single-particle simulations show an exact match with our analytical model. We use twoparticle simulations to show conditions under which thermomigration induces the growth of the smaller particle and shrinkage of the larger one in contrast to the isothermal Ostwald ripening behavior. Our multiparticle simulations show similar behavior during coarsening. Moreover, in the presence of a thermal gradient, there is a shift in the center of mass of the precipitates towards the high-temperature region. Thus, our study offers new insights into the phenomena of microstructure evolution in the presence of thermal gradient.

This work presents a new dataset for the Martian digital elevation model prediction task, ready for machine learning applications called MCTED. The dataset has been generated using a comprehensive pipeline designed to process high-resolution Mars orthoimage and DEM pairs from Day et al., yielding a dataset consisting of 80,898 data samples. The source images are data gathered by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter using the CTX instrument, providing a very diverse and comprehensive coverage of the Martian surface. Given the complexity of the processing pipelines used in large-scale DEMs, there are often artefacts and missing data points in the original data, for which we developed tools to solve or mitigate their impact. We divide the processed samples into training and validation splits, ensuring samples in both splits cover no mutual areas to avoid data leakage. Every sample in the dataset is represented by the optical image patch, DEM patch, and two mask patches, indicating values that were originally missing or were altered by us. This allows future users of the dataset to handle altered elevation regions as they please. We provide statistical insights of the generated dataset, including the spatial distribution of samples, the distributions of elevation values, slopes and more. Finally, we train a small U-Net architecture on the MCTED dataset and compare its performance to a monocular depth estimation foundation model, DepthAnythingV2, on the task of elevation prediction. We find that even a very small architecture trained on this dataset specifically, beats a zero-shot performance of a depth estimation foundation model like DepthAnythingV2. We make the dataset and code used for its generation completely open source in public repositories.

We study the problem of the transformation of a given reactant species into an immiscible product species, as they flow through a chemically active porous medium. We derive the equation governing the evolution of the volume fraction of the species -- in a one-dimensional macroscopic description --, identify the relevant dimensionless numbers, and provide simple models for capillary pressure and relative permeabilities, which are quantities of crucial importance when tackling multiphase flows in porous media. We set the domain of validity of our models and discuss the importance of viscous coupling terms in the extended Darcy's law. We investigate numerically the steady regime and demonstrate that the spatial transformation rate of the species along the reactor is non-monotonous, as testified by the existence of an inflection point in the volume fraction profiles. We obtain the scaling of the location of this inflection point with the dimensionless lengths of the problem. Eventually, we provide key elements for optimization of the reactor.

We introduce a learning-guided motion planning framework that generates seed trajectories using a diffusion model for trajectory optimization. Given a workspace, our method approximates the configuration space (C-space) obstacles through an environment representation consisting of a sparse set of task-related key configurations, which is then used as a conditioning input to the diffusion model. The diffusion model integrates regularization terms that encourage smooth, collision-free trajectories during training, and trajectory optimization refines the generated seed trajectories to correct any colliding segments. Our experimental results demonstrate that high-quality trajectory priors, learned through our C-space-grounded diffusion model, enable the efficient generation of collision-free trajectories in narrow-passage environments, outperforming previous learning- and planning-based baselines. Videos and additional materials can be found on the project page: https://kiwi-sherbet.github.io/PRESTO.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Our understanding of the temporal dynamics of the Earth's surface has been advanced by deep vision models, which often require lots of labeled multi-temporal images for training. However, collecting, preprocessing, and annotating multi-temporal remote sensing images at scale is non-trivial since it is expensive and knowledge-intensive. In this paper, we present change data generators based on generative models, which are cheap and automatic, alleviating these data problems. Our main idea is to simulate a stochastic change process over time. We describe the stochastic change process as a probabilistic graphical model (GPCM), which factorizes the complex simulation problem into two more tractable sub-problems, i.e., change event simulation and semantic change synthesis. To solve these two problems, we present Changen2, a GPCM with a resolution-scalable diffusion transformer which can generate time series of images and their semantic and change labels from labeled or unlabeled single-temporal images. Changen2 is a generative change foundation model that can be trained at scale via self-supervision, and can produce change supervisory signals from unlabeled single-temporal images. Unlike existing foundation models, Changen2 synthesizes change data to train task-specific foundation models for change detection. The resulting model possesses inherent zero-shot change detection capabilities and excellent transferability. Experiments suggest Changen2 has superior spatiotemporal scalability, e.g., Changen2 model trained on 256^2 pixel single-temporal images can yield time series of any length and resolutions of 1,024^2 pixels. Changen2 pre-trained models exhibit superior zero-shot performance (narrowing the performance gap to 3% on LEVIR-CD and approximately 10% on both S2Looking and SECOND, compared to fully supervised counterparts) and transferability across multiple types of change tasks.

Soil sinkholes significantly influence soil degradation, but their irregular shapes, along with interference from shadow and vegetation, make it challenging to accurately quantify their properties using remotely sensed data. We present a novel framework for sinkhole segmentation that combines traditional topographic computations of closed depressions with the newly developed prompt-based Segment Anything Model (SAM). Within this framework, termed SinkSAM, we highlight four key improvements: (1) The integration of topographic computations with SAM enables pixel-level refinement of sinkhole boundaries segmentation; (2) A coherent mathematical prompting strategy, based on closed depressions, addresses the limitations of purely learning-based models (CNNs) in detecting and segmenting undefined sinkhole features, while improving generalization to new, unseen regions; (3) Using Depth Anything V2 monocular depth for automatic prompts eliminates photogrammetric biases, enabling sinkhole mapping without the dependence on LiDAR data; and (4) An established sinkhole database facilitates fine-tuning of SAM, improving its zero-shot performance in sinkhole segmentation. These advancements allow the deployment of SinkSAM, in an unseen test area, in the highly variable semiarid region, achieving an intersection-over-union (IoU) of 40.27\% and surpassing previous results. This paper also presents the first SAM implementation for sinkhole segmentation and demonstrates the robustness of SinkSAM in extracting sinkhole maps using a single RGB image.

This study presents an explainable artificial intelligent (XAI) model for predicting pile driving vibrations in Bangkok's soft clay subsoil. A deep neural network was developed using a dataset of 1,018 real-world pile driving measurements, encompassing variations in pile dimensions, hammer characteristics, sensor locations, and vibration measurement axes. The model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.276, outperforming traditional empirical methods and other machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and CatBoost. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the model's predictions, revealing complex relationships between input features and peak particle velocity (PPV). Distance from the pile driving location emerged as the most influential factor, followed by hammer weight and pile size. Non-linear relationships and threshold effects were observed, providing new insights into vibration propagation in soft clay. A web-based application was developed to facilitate adoption by practicing engineers, bridging the gap between advanced machine learning techniques and practical engineering applications. This research contributes to the field of geotechnical engineering by offering a more accurate and nuanced approach to predicting pile driving vibrations, with implications for optimizing construction practices and mitigating environmental impacts in urban areas. The model and its source code are publicly available, promoting transparency and reproducibility in geotechnical research.

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare pretraining decisions involving optimizers, datasets, and model architectures. Despite the widespread use of scaling laws to model the dynamics of language model training, there has been little work on understanding how to best estimate and interpret them. We collect (and release) a large-scale dataset containing losses and downstream evaluations for 485 previously published pretrained models. We use these to estimate more than 1000 scaling laws, then derive a set of best practices for estimating scaling laws in new model families. We find that fitting scaling laws to intermediate checkpoints of training runs (and not just their final losses) substantially improves accuracy, and that -- all else equal -- estimates of performance are generally most accurate when derived from other models of similar sizes. However, because there is a significant degree of variability across model seeds, training multiple small models is sometimes more useful than training a single large one. Moreover, while different model families differ scaling behavior, they are often similar enough that a target model's behavior can be predicted from a single model with the same architecture, along with scaling parameter estimates derived from other model families.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

We develop a data-driven model, introducing recent advances in machine learning to reservoir simulation. We use a conventional reservoir modeling tool to generate training set and a special ensemble of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to build a predictive model. The ANN-based model allows to reproduce the time dependence of fluids and pressure distribution within the computational cells of the reservoir model. We compare the performance of the ANN-based model with conventional reservoir modeling and illustrate that ANN-based model (1) is able to capture all the output parameters of the conventional model with very high accuracy and (2) demonstrate much higher computational performance. We finally elaborate on further options for research and developments within the area of reservoir modeling.

Training language models currently requires pre-determining a fixed compute budget because the typical cosine learning rate schedule depends on the total number of steps. In contrast, the Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule uses a constant learning rate to produce a main branch of iterates that can in principle continue indefinitely without a pre-specified compute budget. Then, given any compute budget, one can branch out from the main branch at a proper time with a rapidly decaying learning rate to produce a strong model. Empirically, WSD generates a non-traditional loss curve: the loss remains elevated during the stable phase but sharply declines during the decay phase. Towards explaining this phenomenon, we conjecture that pretraining loss exhibits a river valley landscape, which resembles a deep valley with a river at its bottom. Under this assumption, we show that during the stable phase, the iterate undergoes large oscillations due to the high learning rate, yet it progresses swiftly along the river. During the decay phase, the rapidly dropping learning rate minimizes the iterate's oscillations, moving it closer to the river and revealing true optimization progress. Therefore, the sustained high learning rate phase and fast decaying phase are responsible for progress in the river and the mountain directions respectively, and are both critical. Our analysis predicts phenomenons consistent with empirical observations and shows that this landscape can emerge from pretraining on a simple bi-gram dataset. Inspired by the theory, we introduce WSD-S, a variant of WSD that reuses previous checkpoints' decay phases and keeps only one main branch, where we resume from a decayed checkpoint. WSD-S empirically outperforms WSD and Cyclic-Cosine in obtaining multiple language model checkpoints across various compute budgets in a single run for parameters scaling from 0.1B to 1.2B.

Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image generation, producing higher-quality and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a latent diffusion model (LDM) for precipitation nowcasting - short-term forecasting based on the latest observational data. The LDM is more stable and requires less computation to train than GANs, albeit with more computationally expensive generation. We benchmark it against the GAN-based Deep Generative Models of Rainfall (DGMR) and a statistical model, PySTEPS. The LDM produces more accurate precipitation predictions, while the comparisons are more mixed when predicting whether the precipitation exceeds predefined thresholds. The clearest advantage of the LDM is that it generates more diverse predictions than DGMR or PySTEPS. Rank distribution tests indicate that the distribution of samples from the LDM accurately reflects the uncertainty of the predictions. Thus, LDMs are promising for any applications where uncertainty quantification is important, such as weather and climate.

This paper presents a novel virus propagation model using NetLogo. The model allows agents to move across multiple sites using different routes. Routes can be configured, enabled for mobility and (un)locked down independently. Similarly, locations can also be (un)locked down independently. Agents can get infected, propagate their infections to others, can take precautions against infection and also subsequently recover from infection. This model contains certain features that are not present in existing models. The model may be used for educational and research purposes, and the code is made available as open source. This model may also provide a broader framework for more detailed simulations. The results presented are only to demonstrate the model functionalities and do not serve any other purpose.

Deep learning-based models for All-In-One Image Restoration (AIOR) have achieved significant advancements in recent years. However, their practical applicability is limited by poor generalization to samples outside the training distribution. This limitation arises primarily from insufficient diversity in degradation variations and scenes within existing datasets, resulting in inadequate representations of real-world scenarios. Additionally, capturing large-scale real-world paired data for degradations such as haze, low-light, and raindrops is often cumbersome and sometimes infeasible. In this paper, we leverage the generative capabilities of latent diffusion models to synthesize high-quality degraded images from their clean counterparts. Specifically, we introduce GenDeg, a degradation and intensity-aware conditional diffusion model capable of producing diverse degradation patterns on clean images. Using GenDeg, we synthesize over 550k samples across six degradation types: haze, rain, snow, motion blur, low-light, and raindrops. These generated samples are integrated with existing datasets to form the GenDS dataset, comprising over 750k samples. Our experiments reveal that image restoration models trained on the GenDS dataset exhibit significant improvements in out-of-distribution performance compared to those trained solely on existing datasets. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive analyses on the implications of diffusion model-based synthetic degradations for AIOR. The code will be made publicly available.

Standard diffusion models involve an image transform -- adding Gaussian noise -- and an image restoration operator that inverts this degradation. We observe that the generative behavior of diffusion models is not strongly dependent on the choice of image degradation, and in fact an entire family of generative models can be constructed by varying this choice. Even when using completely deterministic degradations (e.g., blur, masking, and more), the training and test-time update rules that underlie diffusion models can be easily generalized to create generative models. The success of these fully deterministic models calls into question the community's understanding of diffusion models, which relies on noise in either gradient Langevin dynamics or variational inference, and paves the way for generalized diffusion models that invert arbitrary processes. Our code is available at https://github.com/arpitbansal297/Cold-Diffusion-Models

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

We present FloodDiffusion, a new framework for text-driven, streaming human motion generation. Given time-varying text prompts, FloodDiffusion generates text-aligned, seamless motion sequences with real-time latency. Unlike existing methods that rely on chunk-by-chunk or auto-regressive model with diffusion head, we adopt a diffusion forcing framework to model this time-series generation task under time-varying control events. We find that a straightforward implementation of vanilla diffusion forcing (as proposed for video models) fails to model real motion distributions. We demonstrate that to guarantee modeling the output distribution, the vanilla diffusion forcing must be tailored to: (i) train with a bi-directional attention instead of casual attention; (ii) implement a lower triangular time scheduler instead of a random one; (iii) utilize a continues time-varying way to introduce text conditioning. With these improvements, we demonstrate in the first time that the diffusion forcing-based framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on the streaming motion generation task, reaching an FID of 0.057 on the HumanML3D benchmark. Models, code, and weights are available. https://shandaai.github.io/FloodDiffusion/

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Climate-vulnerable road networks require a paradigm shift from reactive, fix-on-failure repairs to predictive, decision-ready maintenance. This paper introduces ST-ResGAT, a novel Spatio-Temporal Residual Graph Attention Network that fuses residual graph-attention encoding with GRU temporal aggregation to forecast pavement deterioration. Engineered for resource-constrained deployment, the framework translates continuous Pavement Condition Index (PCI) forecasts directly into the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)-compliant maintenance priorities. Using a real-world inspection dataset of 750 segments in Sylhet, Bangladesh (2021-2024), ST-ResGAT significantly outperforms traditional non-spatial machine learning baselines, achieving exceptional predictive fidelity (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 2.72). Crucially, ablation testing confirmed the mathematical necessity of modeling topological neighbor effects, proving that structural decay acts as a spatial contagion. Uniquely, we integrate GNNExplainer to unbox the model, demonstrating that its learned priorities align perfectly with established physical engineering theory. Furthermore, we quantify classification safety: achieving 85.5% exact ASTM class agreement and 100% adjacent-class containment, ensuring bounded, engineer-safe predictions. To connect model outputs to policy, we generate localized longitudinal maintenance profiles, perform climate stress-testing, and derive Pareto sustainability frontiers. ST-ResGAT therefore offers a practical, explainable, and sustainable blueprint for intelligent infrastructure management in high-risk, low-resource geological settings.

From crop mapping to flood detection, machine learning in remote sensing has a wide range of societally beneficial applications. The commonalities between remote sensing data in these applications present an opportunity for pretrained machine learning models tailored to remote sensing to reduce the labeled data and effort required to solve individual tasks. However, such models must be: (i) flexible enough to ingest input data of varying sensor modalities and shapes (i.e., of varying spatial and temporal dimensions), and (ii) able to model Earth surface phenomena of varying scales and types. To solve this gap, we present Galileo, a family of pretrained remote sensing models designed to flexibly process multimodal remote sensing data. We also introduce a novel and highly effective self-supervised learning approach to learn both large- and small-scale features, a challenge not addressed by previous models. Our Galileo models obtain state-of-the-art results across diverse remote sensing tasks.

Multi-view image generation holds significant application value in computer vision, particularly in domains like 3D reconstruction, virtual reality, and augmented reality. Most existing methods, which rely on extending single images, face notable computational challenges in maintaining cross-view consistency and generating high-resolution outputs. To address these issues, we propose the Geometry-guided Multi-View Diffusion Model, which incorporates mechanisms for extracting multi-view geometric information and adjusting the intensity of geometric features to generate images that are both consistent across views and rich in detail. Specifically, we design a multi-view geometry information extraction module that leverages depth maps, normal maps, and foreground segmentation masks to construct a shared geometric structure, ensuring shape and structural consistency across different views. To enhance consistency and detail restoration during generation, we develop a decoupled geometry-enhanced attention mechanism that strengthens feature focus on key geometric details, thereby improving overall image quality and detail preservation. Furthermore, we apply an adaptive learning strategy that fine-tunes the model to better capture spatial relationships and visual coherence between the generated views, ensuring realistic results. Our model also incorporates an iterative refinement process that progressively improves the output quality through multiple stages of image generation. Finally, a dynamic geometry information intensity adjustment mechanism is proposed to adaptively regulate the influence of geometric data, optimizing overall quality while ensuring the naturalness of generated images. More details can be found on the project page: https://sobeymil.github.io/GeoMVD.com.

Diffusion models may be viewed as hierarchical variational autoencoders (VAEs) with two improvements: parameter sharing for the conditional distributions in the generative process and efficient computation of the loss as independent terms over the hierarchy. We consider two changes to the diffusion model that retain these advantages while adding flexibility to the model. Firstly, we introduce a data- and depth-dependent mean function in the diffusion process, which leads to a modified diffusion loss. Our proposed framework, DiffEnc, achieves a statistically significant improvement in likelihood on CIFAR-10. Secondly, we let the ratio of the noise variance of the reverse encoder process and the generative process be a free weight parameter rather than being fixed to 1. This leads to theoretical insights: For a finite depth hierarchy, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) can be used as an objective for a weighted diffusion loss approach and for optimizing the noise schedule specifically for inference. For the infinite-depth hierarchy, on the other hand, the weight parameter has to be 1 to have a well-defined ELBO.

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative models capable of producing high-quality contents such as images, videos, and audio, demonstrating their potential to revolutionize digital content creation. However, these capabilities come at the cost of their significant computational resources and lengthy generation time, underscoring the critical need to develop efficient techniques for practical deployment. In this survey, we provide a systematic and comprehensive review of research on efficient diffusion models. We organize the literature in a taxonomy consisting of three main categories, covering distinct yet interconnected efficient diffusion model topics from algorithm-level, system-level, and framework perspective, respectively. We have also created a GitHub repository where we organize the papers featured in this survey at https://github.com/AIoT-MLSys-Lab/Efficient-Diffusion-Model-Survey. We hope our survey can serve as a valuable resource to help researchers and practitioners gain a systematic understanding of efficient diffusion model research and inspire them to contribute to this important and exciting field.

Realistic simulation of dynamic scenes requires accurately capturing diverse material properties and modeling complex object interactions grounded in physical principles. However, existing methods are constrained to basic material types with limited predictable parameters, making them insufficient to represent the complexity of real-world materials. We introduce a novel approach that leverages multi-modal foundation models and video diffusion to achieve enhanced 4D dynamic scene simulation. Our method utilizes multi-modal models to identify material types and initialize material parameters through image queries, while simultaneously inferring 3D Gaussian splats for detailed scene representation. We further refine these material parameters using video diffusion with a differentiable Material Point Method (MPM) and optical flow guidance rather than render loss or Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) loss. This integrated framework enables accurate prediction and realistic simulation of dynamic interactions in real-world scenarios, advancing both accuracy and flexibility in physics-based simulations.